When will the Euro weaken?

The Euro has been under huge pressure recently as a result of the debt crisis. Despite this the Euro remains very strong as a currency which often has clients asking me when will the Euro weaken?
This is normally in relation to the GBPEUR rate. With the well publicised nature of the debt crisis this is a good question to be asking. After all this time last year the rate was in the 1.20's.. We are now a year later and the debt crisis has only got worse. Why are we still at 1.13-1.15 and not 1.20 or even 1.30?
Interest Rates – With the Eurozone offering investors a 1.5% return on their investment in the Euro, the currency is attractive to buy which keeps it strong. The higher a countries interest rate, the more investment it receives, and hence the stronger it grows. The raising of interest rates is a sign to the wider world that the Eurozone economy is expanding and can allow an interest rate hike. Compare this to the UK or USA who have 0.5% and 0-0.25% interest rates respectively. Looking specifically at the GBPEUR rate the sterling side is weak due to low interest rates. You only need to look at the weakness of the pound against most other currencies to understand why it is also weak against the Euro. The prospect of an interest rate hike is again being pushed into 2012 for the UK, and the Federal Reserve have said rates could be on hold until 2013! Can your currency transfer wait a year or even two in the hope things ‘might' improve?
Germany – When investors look to the Euro they look at the whole economy and not just individual nations. So the poor state of the PIIGS, whilst a major concern is not the whole story. Despite some worse than expected GDP figures coming out today for Germany, Germany has a very healthy economy with very strong exports. The long term expectations are that this will continue. Contrast this to the UK with a Manufaturing and Industrial sector in decline, and a financial sector tarred by the global financial crisis.


Economic and Political Will – There is a massive political and economic will behind the Euro. The backdrop to the current arrangement is a long bloody history and the original idea behind the economic union was to prevent the countries going to war again. To get to where we are today has taken decades of negotiation and concensus which I cannot see being undone quickly. Whilst coming under immense pressure for not acting decisively enough, the Eurozone leaders also have provided the financial back up to deal with the crisis. There are current questions over whether the bailout funds will manage Italy, hence the recent volatility, but the ECB have tools to dampen the volatility. Just last week they bought up €22bn worth of bonds, one of the reasons the GBPEUR rate has come back to 1.13. Today Merkel and Sarkozy are meeting in Paris and this could further help the Euro.
Eurobonds – Presently each Eurozone member issues bonds themselves. Bonds are used by governments to finance the day to day running of the country. By auctioning off debt on a promise to pay back in the future, investors provide credit and liquidity to keep the governments functioning. The idea of a Eurobond would be to consolidate the members borrowing, thereby reducing the amount of interest on bonds weaker nations have to pay because they are weak. Germany have said they will not back a Eurobond but only because they feel the indebted nations (PIIGS) don't have their house in order. It is forseeable that Germany would back the Eurobonds if the PIIGS can show themselves to be able to benefit from the Eurobond scheme. I personally cannot see how the weaker nations can manage long term in the current state. I feel the Eurobond is one answer to Europe's problems and if announced down the line will further help the Euro.
Despite the huge uncertainty in the market the Euro remains strong. Europe is the UK's biggest trading partner and we have invested heavily in their debt. For better or for worse we are part of Europe. If you believe the Eurozone will collapse, or even hope that it will because you feel suddenly the GBPEUR rate will improve, I would advise caution. The collapse of the Eurozone or further major shocks will hurt the UK economy which is already under huge strain.
In my opinion getting the best rate is about setting realistic expectations over your time frame and being ready to pounce when things are favourable. Part of our service is to not only offer award winning exchange rates, but also keep clients informed and updated so that they have all the information to make informed decisions.
If you have any currency requirements for the future – even months or years away, I can help offer assistance in making sure you benefit from market movements not suffer. Why take the risk of gambling on exchange rates moving in your favour? We are specialist currency brokers who have won awards for not only our rates, but also customer service. Whether you are an experienced market analyst or don't know your Peso from your Lira, I can help advise all the ins and outs of safely moving money abroad.  

Monetary Economic ppt by Frederic Mishkin Chapter 1 - 12

Monetary Economic ppt by Frederic Mishkin Chapter 1 - 12, if you want to download it please click here

Financial Management By Brigham Houston

Financial Management 13th edition by Brigham and Houston, If you want to download it please click here

Basic Econometric By Damodar Gujarati

Basic econometric by Damodar Gujarati file type pdf, if you want to download it, please click here

Inheritance Tax in the UK

Inheritance tax in the UK is payable when a large valued estate is handed over to a person, persons or business entity. Inheritance tax is usually due, or will potentially be due, when a person dies. There are also other occasions when it could be due, such as – when assets are transferred to a company or discretionary trust. Even if you are not due Inheritance tax, because the amount is too small, you will still have to fill out a grant of representation. There are certain instances where this is not required, but for the most part you will have to.

All the Different Ways to File Your Taxes Online

As the tax season approaches, more and more people are beginning to worry about how they are going to file their taxes. As many people are going to mail their taxes through the mail, you may want to file your taxes online! For many, filing their taxes online may be much easier and quicker!

Business Development Solutions

Everyone that has intentions of starting a business or branching out an existing business into new fields will realize how difficult that is nowadays. The competition is fierce, well organized and with the development of the internet there has been a great increase in marketing styles and tactics. Someone without enough experience will not be able to get off to a successful start in today's business world and that is why it is important to have the help of business development solutions.

When to Take a Personal Loan?

Whether taking a personal loan is a good idea or not entirely depends on your needs. At times it is but other times there are reasons when it might make your finances tougher to manage. For example, it is recommended to take a loan in case of emergency but, it is ill advice to take loans for non emergent situations like vacations.
Vacationing on a loan is not always a bad thing if it does not lead one into a debt trap. The best advice to follow: if you have it in your budget then makes the payments.If you do, then you will be fine to avail a loan for whatever reason you choose. There are many pros and cons to taking out a loan.
Choosing the right time to take out the loan could be very beneficial for your financial future:
Timely payments made on your personal loan will help you build up your credit score, which makes it easier to obtain additional financial products at a good interest rate in the future.
When to take a loan?

Some people choose to take out a personal loan to have the money to be able send their child to college

Fundamental Analysis of Stock

Fundamental analysis of stock can be done by looking the company's condition, whether it is a good company or not. Here are some criteria you need to check:

  1. The company is market leader in the industry. As we know Coca cola is the market leader in soft drink market. Market leader is one of company's competitive advantages that differs them from other competitors. Company which is a market leader can raise their product or service price easier. Other competitive advantages you can look into are patent, strong customer base, brand and strong management.
  2. The company has low debt equity ratio. This means the debt is low compared to equity. With low debt, the company can borrow more money to expand their business. Companies with high debt equity ratio are also risky because when business turns bad; their huge debt can cause additional problems. Companies with high debt equity ratio will have to pay more interest for their debts.

Produk Ramah Lingkungan Hambatan dan Tantangan Bagi Usaha Kecil Menengah


Pendahuluan
Definisi Usaha Kecil dan Menengah (UKM) menurut Kementerian Negara Koperasi dan Usaha Kecil Menengah adalah entitas usaha yang memiliki kekayaan bersih antara Rp. 200.000.000,- sampai dengan Rp. 10.000.000.000,- tidak termasuk tanah dan bangunan tempat usaha dan memiliki penjualan bersih tahunan sekitar Rp. 1.000.000.000,-. Persentase jumlah usaha kecil dan menengah menurut Kamar Dagang Indonesia (KADIN) adalah sebesar 99 % dari total unit usaha yang ada di Indonesia, angka tersebut setara dengan 51,26 juta unit usaha. UKM mempunyai peran yang paling penting dalam menggerakkan perekonomian nasional dengan menyumbang 53 % dari PDB Indonesia pada tahun 2009.

Gempa Jepang dan Perekonomian Indonesia


Pendahuluan
Perekonomian terbuka sudah menjadi bagian terpenting bagi sebagian besar negara – negara dunia, dengan adanya perekonomian terbuka ini sistem perekonomian setiap negara seperti membentuk sebuah jaringan global yang semakin lama semakin terintegrasi sehingga ketika ada goncangan perekonomian pada suatu negara dengan perekonomian terbuka, dampaknya akan terasa sampai kepada negara – negara lain. Goncangan ekonomi tersebut bisa disebabkan oleh faktor – faktor yang bersifat ekonomis atau non ekonomis.

Bahan Kuliah Ekonomi Internasional

Bahan mata kuliah Ekonomi Internasional ini berbentuk power point ringkasan dari bukunya Krugmann and Obsfeld. Silahkan kalau mau download disini

Kenaikan Gaji PNS dan Inflasi


Pendahuluan
Setiap tahun pendapatan pegawai negeri sipil selalu mengalami kenaikan yang dimulai sejak era Presiden Abdurahman Wahid sampai dengan sekarang. Bahkan menurut media online kompas, untuk tahun ini pemerintah sudah memutuskan untuk menaikkan gaji PNS sekitar 10 – 15 % sehingga penghasilan terendah bagi pegawai negeri sipil adalah sebesar Rp. 2.000.000,-. Kenaikan gaji pegawai negeri sipil ini dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan kinerja abdi negara dalam melakukan pelayanan kepada masyarakat dan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pegawai negeri sipil. Masih menurut media online kompas, kenaikkan gaji pegawai negeri sipil akan berdampak pada perekonomian nasional berupa kenaikan inflasi meskipun oleh sebagian kalangan dampak tersebut dinilai tidak signifikan dan hanya terjadi dalam jangka pendek.

Harga Minyak Naik, Defisit APBN Terancam Melebihi 2 %


Review Berita
Pada berita yang disajikan harian Media Indonesia Online pada hari Selasa, 8 Maret 2011, Ekonom Regional Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) Su Sian Lim mengingatkan Pemerintah Indonesia untuk segera melakukan pembatasan subsidi BBM karena harga minyak yang melambung saat ini dianggap bisa mengancam bertambah besarnya defisit anggaran pemerintah menjadi 3 %. Su menjelaskan bahwa jika harga minyak mencapai $120 per barel maka defisit anggaran bisa mencapai 3% dan jika hal itu terjadi maka peringkat surat utang Indonesia yang hampir mencapai peringkat investment grade bisa kembali merosot dalam waktu satu malam.

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